The expert equation

Note: The inspiration for this blog comes from this video.

What causes expertise? #

Chess masters don't possess exceptional memory skills.
They have a better memory for chess positions that could occur in a real game.

Rather than seeing a chessboard as individual pieces, they perceive a smaller number of recognizable configurations. This is called 'chunking' - recognizing complex stimuli stored in long-term memory as a single unit.

For eg - We visualize 3.14 as Pi(π), rather than a string of 3 unrelated numbers.

At its core, expertise is about recognition. Magnus Carlsen recognizes chess positions in the same way we recognize faces. And recognition directly leads to intuition.

We recognize an angry face and know what's to come next.
Chess masters recognize board positions and instinctively know the optimal move.

The 10,000-hour rule or 10k iterations is a rule of thumb to develop expert-level recognition, but it's not sufficient.
To cultivate the long-term memory of an expert, four additional criteria must be met:

1. Repeated attempts with feedback #

• Tennis players hit hundreds of shots and know whether they worked or not.
• Chess players play thousands of games before they become grandmasters and know whether they won or lost.
• Physicists solve thousands of problems and know whether they got them right or wrong.

2. Valid environment #

• There needs to be predictability, reduced randomness, and some regularities for learning to occur effectively.
• For example, a gambler playing roulette thousands of times with feedback won't make them an expert.
• This is why stock pickers can't be considered experts. In the short term, stock changes are random events more akin to a roulette wheel than chess. Hence, 80-90% of active fund managers are unable to outperform the market over the long term.

3. Early/Timely feedback #

• Content creation platforms such as YouTube and Instagram reward creators based on early milestones, such as reaching 1000 views. Creators continually pursue this dopamine rush.
• Without prompt feedback, refining one's craft becomes challenging, making expertise unattainable.
• College admission officers receive delayed feedback on how their selected students perform, as they only learn the results once every 4-5 years. Consequently, they lack expertise in their fields.

4. Deliberate practice #

• Don't get too comfortable; push your limits.
• Learning to drive a car may take around 50 hours, but mastering it requires more than just repetition over the years. To become an expert, you need to explore different terrains, weather conditions, try F1 driving, and push speed limits. One must continually push their boundaries to attain mastery.
• Learning occurs when you practice at the edge of your ability, pushing beyond your comfort zone.
• In chess, the best predictor of skill level is not the number of games or tournaments played, but rather the number of hours dedicated to serious solitary study.
• This is why coaches and teachers are invaluable. They help individuals surpass their limits, identify weaknesses, and assign tasks to address them.

Takeaway #

• To become an expert, you have to practice for thousands of hours in the uncomfortable zone, attempting things you can't do quite yet, and receiving timely feedback.

• True expertise may appear magical, but its essence lies in recognition. And recognition stems from an immense amount of highly structured information stored in long-term memory. Building such memory requires four key elements - Valid environment, Many repetitions, Timely feedback and Deleberate practice.

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